Fighting Poverty, Profitably: Transforming the Economics of Payments to Build Sustainable, Inclusive Financial Systems

The Gates Foundation's Financial Services for the Poor program (FSP) believes that effective financial services are paramount in the fight against poverty. Nonetheless, today more than 2 billion people live outside the formal financial sector. Increasing their access to high quality, affordable financial services will accelerate the well-being of households, communities, and economies in the developing world. One of the most promising ways to deliver these financial services to the poor -- profitably and at scale -- is by using digital payment platforms.These are the conclusions we have reached as the result of extensive research in pursuit of one of the Foundation's primary missions: to give the world's poorest people the chance to lift themselves out of hunger and extreme poverty.FSP conducted this research because we believe that there is a gap in the fact base and understanding of how payment systems can extend digital services to low income consumers in developing markets. This is a complex topic, with fragmented information and a high degree of country-by-country variability. A complete view across the entire payment system has been missing, limiting how system providers, policy makers, and regulators (groups we refer to collectively as financial inclusion stakeholders) evaluate decisions and take actions. With a holistic view of the payment system, we believe that interventions can have higher impact, and stakeholders can better understand and address the ripple effects that changes to one part of the system can have. In this report, we focus on the economics of payment systems to understand how they can be transformed to serve poor people in a way that is profitable and sustainable in aggregate

Developing a Marketing Plan for the Christian Science Monitor

The Christian Science Monitor is an unbiased, international news organization that has been operating since 1908. The problem that the Christian Science Monitor has begun facing is an inability to attract younger readers. The CSM hopes to attract these readers, which led our team to conduct market research to guide them through this. The goal of our project was to develop a marketing plan for the CSM that targets college students between the ages of 18-25 years. We collected insightful data and information during our research process. We then used these findings to create explicit recommendations for the CSM to attract younger readers

Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Simulation Tools to Improve Fire Weather Forecasts

Fire weather forecasts rely on numerical weather simulations where the grid size is 4 km x 4 km or larger. In areas of complex terrain, this model resolution will not capture the details of wind flows associated with complicated topography. Wind channeling in valleys, wind speed-up over mountains and ridges, and enhanced turbulence associated with rough terrain and tall forest canopies are poorly represented in current weather model applications. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating winds at high resolution; however, there are limited observational data available at the spatial scales appropriate for evaluating these types of models. In response to this need for high resolution validation data, we collected wind measurements at very high spatial resolution over a range of meteorological conditions from three different types of terrain/landcover features: an isolated mountain covered predominantly by grass and sagebrush, a steep river canyon covered predominantly by grass, and a dissected montane drainage with a tall forest canopy. We used data from the isolated mountain and the steep river canyon to evaluate surface wind predictions from routine weather forecasts and a high resolution wind simulation model, WindNinja, developed specifically for fire behavior applications. Data from the third field site will be used for future model evaluations planned to investigate the effect of tall forest canopies on surface wind predictions. Analyses of observations from the isolated mountain and steep river canyon sites indicate that operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds (i.e., at sub-grid scales) in complex terrain. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “High Resolution Observations of the Near-Surface Wind Field over an Isolated Mountain and in a Steep River Canyon” submitted for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Links to the observed data from this effort as well as an online interface to query, visualize, summarize, and download subsets of the data are available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications. Findings from the model evaluations work indicate that using WindNinja to downscale from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds can, in some cases, improve the accuracy of surface wind forecasts in complex terrain. Predictions of surface wind speeds and directions improved with downscaling via WindNinja when flow features induced by large scale effects were adequately captured by the NWP model used to initialize WindNinja. This suggests that WindNinja could be incorporated into current fire forecast methods to provide better short-term forecasts for fire management operations. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “Downscaling Surface Wind Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Complex Terrain with a Mass-consistent Wind Model” that will be submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology later this spring

Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Simulation Tools to Improve Fire Weather Forecasts

Fire weather forecasts rely on numerical weather simulations where the grid size is 4 km x 4 km or larger. In areas of complex terrain, this model resolution will not capture the details of wind flows associated with complicated topography. Wind channeling in valleys, wind speed-up over mountains and ridges, and enhanced turbulence associated with rough terrain and tall forest canopies are poorly represented in current weather model applications. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating winds at high resolution; however, there are limited observational data available at the spatial scales appropriate for evaluating these types of models. In response to this need for high resolution validation data, we collected wind measurements at very high spatial resolution over a range of meteorological conditions from three different types of terrain/landcover features: an isolated mountain covered predominantly by grass and sagebrush, a steep river canyon covered predominantly by grass, and a dissected montane drainage with a tall forest canopy. We used data from the isolated mountain and the steep river canyon to evaluate surface wind predictions from routine weather forecasts and a high resolution wind simulation model, WindNinja, developed specifically for fire behavior applications. Data from the third field site will be used for future model evaluations planned to investigate the effect of tall forest canopies on surface wind predictions. Analyses of observations from the isolated mountain and steep river canyon sites indicate that operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds (i.e., at sub-grid scales) in complex terrain. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “High Resolution Observations of the Near-Surface Wind Field over an Isolated Mountain and in a Steep River Canyon” submitted for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Links to the observed data from this effort as well as an online interface to query, visualize, summarize, and download subsets of the data are available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications. Findings from the model evaluations work indicate that using WindNinja to downscale from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds can, in some cases, improve the accuracy of surface wind forecasts in complex terrain. Predictions of surface wind speeds and directions improved with downscaling via WindNinja when flow features induced by large scale effects were adequately captured by the NWP model used to initialize WindNinja. This suggests that WindNinja could be incorporated into current fire forecast methods to provide better short-term forecasts for fire management operations. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “Downscaling Surface Wind Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Complex Terrain with a Mass-consistent Wind Model” that will be submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology later this spring

Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course: Program Evaluation

Survey results (n = 3,748) collected over a period of 7 years from the Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course (BCSC) were analyzed to evaluate course demographics and the impact of the course on attendees. Results of this survey demonstrate that attendee demographics of the BCSC are representative of beef cattle producers in the United States and that the BCSC is effective at delivering information that positively impacts beef production in Texas. Extension professionals can make use of these findings to tailor future education programs to better serve the needs of beef cattle producers nation-wide

A second locality for the Namib darkling beetle Onymacris brainei (Tenebrionidae, Coleoptera) and first report on its molecular phylogenetic placement

Supported by the ECU's Open Access FundOnymacris brainei Penrith, 1984 – the most recent species of Onymacris to be described – is known only from its type locality in the Namib Desert, adjacent to the Cunene River in northern Namibia. No additional specimens are known to have been collected beyond the type series. Herein, we report on eight specimens discovered at a second site near the original locality. DNA from four beetles was used to determine the phylogenetic placement of O. brainei among congeners, based on sequence data from one nuclear (histone III) and two mitochondrial (cox1, cox2) genes. Maximum likelihood analysis identifies O. brainei as a member of the ‘white’ Onymacris clade, in which it forms a strongly supported subclade with O. bicolor and O. marginipennis. More broadly, its phylogenetic placement augments previous molecular results that revealed a sister taxon relationship between the ‘white’ Onymacris and a second genus, Physadesmia. The paraphyly of Onymacris with respect to Physadesmia highlights a need for nomenclatural change, but revision should await acquisition of genetic data for the few species outstanding in both genera

Can mapping algorithms based on raw scores overestimate QALYs gained by treatment? A comparison of mappings between the Roland–Morris Disability Questionnaire and the EQ-5D-3L based on raw and Differenced Score Data

Introduction Mapping algorithms are increasingly being used to predict health-utility values based on responses or scores from non-preference-based measures, thereby informing economic evaluations. Objectives We explored whether predictions in the EuroQol 5-dimension 3-level instrument (EQ-5D-3L) health-utility gains from mapping algorithms might differ if estimated using differenced versus raw scores, using the Roland–Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMQ), a widely used health status measure for low back pain, as an example. Methods We estimated algorithms mapping within-person changes in RMQ scores to changes in EQ-5D-3L health utilities using data from two clinical trials with repeated observations. We also used logistic regression models to estimate response mapping algorithms from these data to predict within-person changes in responses to each EQ-5D-3L dimension from changes in RMQ scores. Predicted health-utility gains from these mappings were compared with predictions based on raw RMQ data. Results Using differenced scores reduced the predicted health-utility gain from a unit decrease in RMQ score from 0.037 (standard error [SE] 0.001) to 0.020 (SE 0.002). Analysis of response mapping data suggests that the use of differenced data reduces the predicted impact of reducing RMQ scores across EQ-5D-3L dimensions and that patients can experience health-utility gains on the EQ-5D-3L ‘usual activity’ dimension independent from improvements captured by the RMQ. Conclusion Mappings based on raw RMQ data overestimate the EQ-5D-3L health utility gains from interventions that reduce RMQ scores. Where possible, mapping algorithms should reflect within-person changes in health outcome and be estimated from datasets containing repeated observations if they are to be used to estimate incremental health-utility gains

Characterization of the Major Ions of Coal Creek Near Cedar City, Utah

The major ions of Coal Creek near Cedar City, in southwest Utah, were measured to determine if there were any differences in ion concentrations in July of 2014 as compared with spring measurements of 2012 and 2013. Past analyses have shown higher ion concentrations in lower regions of Coal Creek despite the apparent lack of water input. This research is aimed to better characterize these abrupt increases in concentration and determine if these trends varied when samples were acquired in the summer vs. in the spring when sample acquisition has occurred in the past. Environmental water samples were collected at evenly spaced locations in Coal Creek from State Route 14 Mile Marker 7 westward to where the creek intersects with Main Street in Cedar City. Ion concentrations were determined in water samples collected every other day for 3 consecutive weeks using Ion Chromatography (IC) and Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AA). The spatially intensive sampling revealed two previously unknown low volume springs that are highly concentrated in the major ions and discharge into the creek. Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) was used to characterize trace metal concentrations within the water tributaries, in addition to IC to determine bulk anion content in the creek. The high ion concentrations of springs correlated well with known geologic features near the creek, such as faulted gypsum layers creating springs as well as evaporate deposits, both of which explain the doubling of ion concentrations seen in the examined section of Coal Creek

Stock Market Analysis IQP

Our team conducted a 15-week regression analysis in which we observed whether or not Google Search Volume (GSV) can serve as an explanatory variable for stock market returns, in particular, for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The study attempts to provide quantitative evidence that the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that stock market returns cannot be explained with factual evidence, is false. The group researched the fundamentals behind stock market swings, as well as the cause for various movements in Google Trends. Through running Microsoft Excel regressions on these two sets of data, we can conclude that there is a positive correlation between search terms on GSV and the NYSE. That is, one has the potential to predict various stock index results based on GSV trends

Transient Reactivation of a Deep-Seated Landslide by Undrained Loading Captured With Repeat Airborne and Terrestrial Lidar

Landslides reactivate due to external environmental forcing or internal mass redistribution, but the process is rarely documented quantitatively. We capture the three-dimensional, 1-m resolution surface deformation field of a transiently reactivated landslide with image correlation of repeat airborne lidar. Undrained loading by two debris flows in the landslide’s head, rather than external forcing, triggered reactivation. After that loading, the lower 2 km of the landslide advanced by up to 14 m in 2 years before completely stopping. The displacement field over those 2 years implies that the slip surface gained 1 kPa of shear strength, which was likely accomplished by a negative dilatancy-pore pressure feedback as material deformed around basal roughness elements. Thus, landslide motion can be decoupled from external environmental forcing in cases, motivating the need to better understand internal perturbations to the stress field to predict hazards and sediment fluxes as landscapes evolve